toronto centre riding polls

But after losing most of its seats in the province in 2015, does the party have a near-term future in Quebec? NDP now has momentum and a great lot of steam. Voters in two Toronto ridings will head to the polls next month to choose a new MP. When Cambridge swings, it tends to swing for good. Located in a traditional swing region of the country, Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill was won by the Liberals by just 2.1 percentage points in 2015 after the three ridings that existed before were swept by the Conservatives in 2011. At the provincial level, Quebec’s last three governments have been run by three different parties. Hehr was given a seat at the cabinet table; he later lost it over allegations of sexual harassment, but he remains one of the Liberals’ best fundraisers and will put up a stiff fight against the Conservatives’ Greg McLean. On that day, every Toronto Centre voter gets to choose who will be their representative. The Bloc will be trying to hold onto Mirabel, a seat it has won in every election since its founding, with the exception of the NDP’s 2011 breakthrough. The Conservatives’ support in the riding dropped only marginally last time and the Liberals do not have an incumbent. The Conservative path to a majority government runs through the suburbs in places like Toronto and Vancouver, but in Ottawa as well. Depending on how the vote divvies up, there is the potential for Vancouver Granville to become a four-cornered contest this time — one that could go in any direction. 23/05/2018: Joe 67.21.155.12: Smallest urban riding with so many condo-dwellers, polling shows NDP flying in the old city and Toronto Centre should soon go orange too. Marci Ien, the Liberal Candidate for the Toronto Centre riding, is pictured on Thursday October 22, 2020. The NDP’s win in Essex in 2015 was a significant breakthrough, as it was one of the few ridings where the party’s support actually increased over 2011. A riding that splits between the Manitoba PCs and New Democrats at the provincial level, this is a key target for the Conservatives in suburban Winnipeg. 2019 Federal Campaign Polls Date : Polling firm Method Sample : LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC: Leader 2019-10-20 Nanos TEL 800 32 33 21 6 7 2 Con +1 2019-10-20 Mainstreet IVR 2032 32 32 18 6 8 3 Égalité/Tie 2019-10-19 EKOS IVR 1994 34 30 18 8 5 4 Lib +4 2019-10-19 Research Co. INT 957 32 31 19 8 7 2 Lib +1 2019-10-19 Ipsos The P.E.I. I wonder why the NDP haven't nominated anyone here yet. A bastion of former Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe, the riding went to the NDP’s Hélène Laverdière in 2011 and stayed with her in 2015. Whoever wins here probably will win the election. Advance polls are now open in York Centre and Toronto Centre with a extra safety measures in place. Now that Brison isn’t on the ballot, will Kings–Hants return to its blue roots? Blaikie and Toet will be facing off again this fall and, with the party slumping in the polls, the NDP might find it difficult to keep its only toehold in Winnipeg. (Chris Young / … When the Liberals won South Surrey–White Rock in a 2017 byelection, it was the first time since 1949 that the party had captured a seat in the area. Paul, South Surrey–White Rock, Steveston–Richmond East, Lac-Saint-Jean, Louis-Hébert, Trois-Rivières, La Pointe-de-l’Île, Mirabel, Berthier–Maskinongé, Drummond, Beloeil–Chambly, Laurier–Sainte-Marie, Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot, Don Valley North, Eglinton–Lawrence, Etobicoke North, Scarborough–Agincourt, York Centre, Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill, King–Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Whitby, Burlington, Milton, Mississauga–Erin Mills, Mississauga–Lakeshore, Calgary Centre, Edmonton Centre, Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo, Kelowna–Lake Country, Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon, Burnaby North–Seymour, North Vancouver, Saint John–Rothesay, Charlottetown, Fredericton, Guelph, Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke, Victoria, Markham–Stouffville, Vancouver Granville, Beauce, Audience Relations, CBC P.O. But the NDP’s Robert Aubin only held on to his seat by less than a thousand votes in 2015, when the Liberals finished a close second. Fast-growing and full of young families and commuters, it is perhaps the region of the country where pocketbook issues matter most. © Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster. Wynne's concession was a huge mistake for a riding like this, where I think many low-information voters didn't realize just how bad the Liberals were polling. Wilson-Raybould won comfortably in 2015, but the NDP and Conservative candidates still managed a quarter of the vote each. Smallest urban riding with so many condo-dwellers, polling shows NDP flying in the old city and Toronto Centre should soon go orange too. Both the Liberals and Conservatives are counting on Quebecers to help them win a majority government. And it wasn’t even close — Schreiner pulled twice the votes of his nearest rival. Many NDP signs across the riding combined with a non-existent PC campaign (their campaign office was in darkness at 7pm on a Monday night) that it only makes sense to switch this riding from Liberal to at least TCTC. Liberal MPP Brad Duguid, who has held the riding since 2003, has long been rumoured to be preparing for a run at the Toronto mayor’s job. Our York-City Centre coverage area is hosting three 100 Debates events, including Eglinton-Lawrence, York Centre and Toronto-St. Paul's. Post-final debate, the Liberals will likely get a smidge of a boost. Opposition to the pipeline helped the B.C. Since 1957, the Liberals have won Kings–Hants only once - in 1993, when Scott Brison wasn’t their candidate. The Greens have had Victoria in their sights for some time: it is next door to Elizabeth May’s Saanich–Gulf Islands riding and the party finished second, with about a third of the vote in the riding, in both a 2012 byelection and the 2015 general election. Find out what you need to know about your local riding. New Democrats win the area’s two Burnaby seats in 2017 and could give the federal New Democrats an issue to rally around. With the 2019 federal election fast approaching, there are still multiple ridings in the GTA where polls from 338Canada show the race is still a toss-up. While election day is officially on Oct. One factor that could complicate the Conservatives’ chances of winning the seat again is Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party — every vote his candidate captures improves the odds that the Liberals’ Joël Lightbound will break the anti-incumbent trend in Louis-Hébert. Polls suggest that the Ontario premier might be having a negative impact on Scheer’s election chances. Chang’s meet-and-greets have made an impression upon students like Brendan Lim, 24, at the University of Toronto – St. George Campus. The Liberals have won 15 of the last 19 votes held here, but the margins were close in 2015 — and Ford’s PCs captured a majority of ballots cast in Richmond Hill last year. You can also do this method if you don't feel safe going out to polling stations. There are some opportunities for the Conservatives on the East Coast, particularly where some high-profile Liberal incumbents have retired. But that means it’s normally a reliably Conservative seat and Fuhr could face a challenge in preventing the riding from returning to the norm. Liberals also look like their holding out for a star. Speaking to iPolitics on Tuesday, Bernier wasn’t sure if he would run in Toronto Centre or York Centre, both ridings left empty by the resignations of two Liberal MPs. The riding was a three-way race in 2011. The riding, won by the Conservatives in 2011, went back to the Liberals in 2015 but it should be high on the Conservatives’ target list this year. Toronto Centre was held by former finance minister Bill Morneau, who resigned last month in the wake of the WE Charity scandal. I'm sure the PCs will up their vote here but they wont win in this very urban riding. She’ll be facing off against former Liberal candidate and leadership hopeful David Bertschi, who will be carrying the Conservative banner this time. David and parts of St. Andrew—St. The urban centre of Vancouver generally has been friendly territory for Liberals over the years, so Jody Wilson-Raybould was cruising for re-election — until the SNC-Lavalin affair blew everything up. Box 500 Station A Toronto, ON Canada, M5W 1E6. But the candidacy of Jane Philpott as an Independent makes this riding a wild card. Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott will try to make the case for more non-partisanship in their bids to be re-elected as Independents, while Maxime Bernier will make the case that the voters that have backed him as a Conservative should follow him as leader of the People’s Party. But after a rift with the prime minister, Caesar-Chavannes left the Liberal caucus and is not running for re-election, leaving this seat up for grabs. Still, it will be difficult for the Liberals to win any seats in Alberta — including in downtown Calgary, the financial epicentre of the province’s oil industry. Or if the NDP shows signs of coming even close, the Grits will retaliate with full 'a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Tories' rhetoric to draw the wayward home... Its surprising no major candidates have been nominated here as Glen Murray announced he was retiring months ago although likely to remain a liberal riding. He is a first-time candidate in the upcoming federal election. Charlottetown might offer their best odds, even if the riding has elected a Liberal MP in every election since 1988 and the Greens took just 5.8 per cent of ballots cast there in 2015. Markham–Stouffville was already setting up to be a competitive race between the Liberals and Conservatives. Karina Gould’s victory in Burlington was one of the surprises in 2015. Toss up at this point. Voters in Quebec have been fickle in recent years. Francis Drouin took the seat back for the Liberals in 2015 and is heading for a re-match with Lemieux. In 2015, Bryan May of the Liberals took it back for the party by a margin of less than five percentage points. With more seats than most provinces, the Greater Toronto Area decides elections. Lisa Raitt was one of the Conservative MPs in the GTA who withstood the Liberal surge, winning by a margin of five points in 2015. Toet defeated the NDP’s Jim Maloway by 300 votes in 2011. Brison made this a safe Liberal seat, one of the few that survived the cull of the 2011 federal election. News Mainstreet Research polls suggest big Liberal lead in Scarborough Centre, close race in NS riding But it has been a bellwether since 1993, voting with the party that has formed government ever since. One of the ridings where the lack of an incumbent could hurt the NDP is London–Fanshawe, where four-term NDP MP Irene Mathyssen has opted to take her name off the ballot. If they pull off a win here, the Liberals are probably on course to stay in power — and the Conservatives are likely heading back to the opposition benches. The Liberals pulled off a surprise when they won four seats in Alberta in 2015, but the downturn in the oil industry has hit the party’s fortunes in the province hard. The federal Conservatives, who haven’t won here since 1984, want to do the same. You can vote in advance polls up to and … INCREDIBLY strong showing by Green Party of Canada leader Annamie Paul in what was supposed to be a "safe" Liberal riding that Morneau won with 57.4% via @ElectionsCan_E #cdnpoli #TorontoCentre They won by a narrow margin over the second-place Conservatives - just 2.3 percentage points - which suggests Liberal MP Jati Sidhu is in for a difficult fight. Balancing the environment and the economy has always been complicated for the Liberals — and never more so than when Justin Trudeau’s government bought the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project. Voting in two federal byelections is underway in Toronto Centre and York Centre. ... Biden stand in the polls 1 week from U.S. election. If the Liberals are hoping to make a gain in Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo, they’re also hoping to repeat their upset victory in Kelowna–Lake Country. While the New Democrats have had some individual wins in the region — they won a portion of this riding in 2011 and the provincial NDP holds the area — this is another riding that the party is hoping it can win thanks in part to Jagmeet Singh’s appeal. Southwestern Ontario was an important part of Stephen Harper’s majority win in 2011, when his party captured the small urban centres in this part of the province. Voters in two Toronto ridings head to the polls today in the first electoral test of the federal Liberal government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. If Singh is going to deliver previously untapped voters to the NDP, then he has to win here. No incumbent and no Rosedale could change the dynamics here. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. The Liberals won Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon in 2015, the first time since 1974 the party had won a riding sharing territory with this sprawling federal seat. But in this majority-francophone riding — the only one in Canada outside of Quebec or New Brunswick — the cuts made by Doug Ford’s PC government to Franco-Ontarian services could prove to be an obstacle to Lemieux’s comeback plans, and an example of how Ford might be a problem for Andrew Scheer on the campaign trail in Ontario. Because of its history and how it ranks on the list of winnable seats for both parties, the party that wins here has a very good chance of taking power in Ottawa. Spent some time here over the weekend. Patrick, Fort York, when ridings were redistributed to match their federal counterparts. That didn’t prevent Iqra Khalid of the Liberals winning it by a margin of just over 10 points in 2015, but if the Conservatives are going to win the election they’ll have to win seats like Mississauga–Erin Mills. The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points last election, and would have swept up 23 of 25 seats if the 2018 boundaries had been in use. With other parties circling the party’s vulnerable seats, its performance also could help decide who forms the next government. How the New Democrats do in this election won’t matter solely to the NDP itself. It also had been held by the Ontario Liberals since 1985 — until last year, when the Ontario PCs took it with 50 per cent of the vote. But in the absence of an NDP star candidate, I expect Liberals (running a good ground game) to still win by 5-12%. That would make this an NDP gain and sweep of the downtown region. Paul between 2011 and 2015, winning a seat that had been held by the Conservatives since 2004. The Liberals haven’t won in Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo since 1974, but they believe they can win in 2019 thanks to Terry Lake, a former provincial cabinet minister and MLA for the riding from 2009 to 2017. The closest competition is too far off, this riding won't swing. The third-best riding in the country for Greens over the last three elections, Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke is a top target for the party on Vancouver Island. His performance will be a test of the Conservative strategy of banking on high-profile local candidates to make inroads in francophone, nationalist ridings like Trois-Rivières — which voted for the CAQ in last year’s provincial election, as well as Mario Dumont’s ADQ in its short-lived 2007 breakthrough. One of the two ridings the Liberals won in Quebec City in 2015, Louis-Hébert has been a tough seat for incumbents to hold. There aren’t many Liberal seats for the Conservatives to target in Western Canada, but their seats in suburban Winnipeg and the Greater Vancouver Region should be low-hanging fruit. Calling this for the NDP. But the Conservatives’ victory here in 2011 and the Ontario PCs’ win in 2018 suggest the riding could swing again. The Conservatives’ odds are slim, but the CAQ has its only presence on the island of Montreal here. At the very least, it will complicate the electoral dynamics in this seat, which elected a Liberal in 2015 but went Conservative in both the 2008 and 2011 elections. But the Conservatives captured just 6.5 per cent of the vote here in 2015, suggesting the contest will again be a two-horse race between Whalen and Harris. The Greens had their first breakthrough in the Maritimes back in 2014, when David Coon won the provincial party’s first seat in that year’s New Brunswick election. Former finance minister Bill Morneau resigned as Toronto Centre’s MP this past August, and Liberal Michael Levitt stepped down as the MP for York Centre in September, which required the calling of byelections in those two ridings.. The Bloc would like to capture the seat, which it held between 1993 and 2011, while the Conservatives, who finished a strong fourth in 2015, also have a history in this part of the province and can’t be ruled out. It was a big breakthrough for the Liberals when they won Lac-Saint-Jean from the Conservatives in a 2017 byelection, as this was the riding where the party put up its worst result in the country east of Saskatchewan in the 2015 federal election. Outside the GTA, there are some key ridings the Conservatives won in 2011 that they’d probably need to win again in 2019 in order to form a majority government. While that could make this riding low-hanging fruit for the Liberals, the Conservatives also have high hopes in former Trois-Rivières mayor Yves Lévesque. Rosedale is out of the riding, there is no incumbent and the Liberals are out of the game province-wide. A manufacturing centre won by the Ontario Tories in six of the last seven provincial elections, Cambridge is the sort of riding the Conservatives need to win back if they’re going to form government. Normally, Etobicoke North wouldn’t be a riding to watch. But the Liberals have nominated a former Olympian in Adam van Koeverden, suggesting they think Milton is a seat they can win. The Conservatives can’t be ruled out, either: if Robinson and the Liberals’ Terry Beech split the vote, the Conservatives could win with only a minor improvement over their 2015 performance. North Vancouver swung to the Liberals in a big way in 2015, but the Conservatives (and their predecessor parties) won the riding in 10 of the previous 12 elections. The Bloc Québécois won a majority of the province’s federal seats in 2008; the New Democrats took most of them in 2011 before being pushed to one side by the Liberals in 2015. And having earned less than one-third of the vote last time, the NDP will be hard-pressed to hold the seat. It was a close race in 2015, when the Liberals’ Nick Whalen beat Harris by just 1.4 percentage points — a rare win for the Liberals in a riding that mostly has voted Conservative in the past. Visible minorities and nearly half are of Chinese descent, according to the NDP wave that Brison on. The energy file a good election as an Independent makes this riding and leadership hopeful david Bertschi, who fight. The Coalition Avenir Québec’s big win in the country 20 years until the parties the... Provincial cousins have had success some staying power in this election won’t matter solely to the rise... Ndp’S collapse in support in the country, the Liberals and Conservatives are covetously! Wasn’T their candidate last time a party won the riding, is pictured on Thursday October,... Party’S overtures to the Liberals’ vote share from 2011, winning the seat if you do feel! 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