An NDP victory is not out of the picture if the NDP wins province-wide. The Liberals swept all of Torontoâs seats in the last election, but both Stephen Harper in 2011 and Doug Ford in 2018 were able to win in places like Etobicoke and Scarborough. To be a national party with representation across the country, the New Democrats will need to hold some of these seats. You can vote in advance polls up to and … Our York-City Centre coverage area is hosting three 100 Debates events, including Eglinton-Lawrence, York Centre and Toronto-St. Paul's. The closest competition is too far off, this riding won't swing. I think this was incorrectly called. The New Democrats have had more success in downtown Toronto in the past, though they lost all of their seats in the city in the last election. Judy Klassen, who scored an upset for the Manitoba Liberals in the 2016 provincial election here, will be carrying the federal partyâs banner this time. A riding that splits between the Manitoba PCs and New Democrats at the provincial level, this is a key target for the Conservatives in suburban Winnipeg. North Vancouver swung to the Liberals in a big way in 2015, but the Conservatives (and their predecessor parties) won the riding in 10 of the previous 12 elections. The New Democrats won the seat with just 28.7 per cent of the vote in 2015 and the Liberals do not need much of a boost to take it for the first time since 1980. The Greens had their first breakthrough in the Maritimes back in 2014, when David Coon won the provincial partyâs first seat in that yearâs New Brunswick election. Paul, South SurreyâWhite Rock, StevestonâRichmond East, Lac-Saint-Jean, Louis-HÃ©bert, Trois-RiviÃ¨res, La Pointe-de-lâÃle, Mirabel, BerthierâMaskinongÃ©, Drummond, BeloeilâChambly, LaurierâSainte-Marie, Saint-HyacintheâBagot, Don Valley North, EglintonâLawrence, Etobicoke North, ScarboroughâAgincourt, York Centre, AuroraâOak RidgesâRichmond Hill, KingâVaughan, Richmond Hill, Whitby, Burlington, Milton, MississaugaâErin Mills, MississaugaâLakeshore, Calgary Centre, Edmonton Centre, KamloopsâThompsonâCariboo, KelownaâLake Country, MissionâMatsquiâFraser Canyon, Burnaby NorthâSeymour, North Vancouver, Saint JohnâRothesay, Charlottetown, Fredericton, Guelph, EsquimaltâSaanichâSooke, Victoria, MarkhamâStouffville, Vancouver Granville, Beauce, Audience Relations, CBC P.O. If the Liberals can secure the progressive vote in the riding, they should be able to hold off the Conservativesâ James Cumming in his second run against Boissonnault. It has been a swing riding at the provincial level over the last decade; the provincial NDP took it by a margin of 42 points in 2018. But if the Greens are casting about more widely, they should look to ridings where their provincial cousins have had success. Calling this for the NDP. The P.E.I. What does the future for the NDP under Jagmeet Singh look like? What will Quebec do this time? Francis Drouin took the seat back for the Liberals in 2015 and is heading for a re-match with Lemieux. A bellwether both federally and provincially until recently, this was a close three-way race in 2015 and both the Liberals and Conservatives will be looking to take advantage of the NDPâs lack of incumbency here. Though that sure didn't pull through federally in 2015; and at a notional 60%+ in 2014 (even if that's skewed by everything coming from one safe riding), it doesn't look *likely* to do so provincially in 2018, either. It has been a swing riding at the provincial level over the last decade; the provincial NDP took it by a margin of 42 points in 2018. The Greens have had Victoria in their sights for some time: it is next door to Elizabeth Mayâs SaanichâGulf Islands riding and the party finished second, with about a third of the vote in the riding, in both a 2012 byelection and the 2015 general election. Hamilton is usually friendly territory for New Democrats. For the Toronto by-election in 2020, people in both York Centre and Toronto Centre are heading to the polls but the deadline to vote by mail is fast approaching. If the New Democrats are going to reconnect with their labour base, then this riding â in which about 16 per cent of the labour force works in manufacturing â should be high on their list. Few NDP incumbents have a reasonable hope of re-election in Quebec, but Brosseau is one of them. Since 1957, the riding anchored by the city of Peterborough has voted with the party that formed government in 19 of 20 general elections â making PeterboroughâKawartha the quintessential bellwether riding and an obvious target for the Conservatives. Sheâll be facing off against former Liberal candidate and leadership hopeful David Bertschi, who will be carrying the Conservative banner this time. But in this majority-francophone riding â the only one in Canada outside of Quebec or New Brunswick â the cuts made by Doug Fordâs PC government to Franco-Ontarian services could prove to be an obstacle to Lemieuxâs comeback plans, and an example of how Ford might be a problem for Andrew Scheer on the campaign trail in Ontario. But after losing most of its seats in the province in 2015, does the party have a near-term future in Quebec? The two will be facing off again in this riding, one of many in the Halton and Peel regions that will play a big role in deciding if any party can win a majority government. King-Vaughan The King-Vaughan riding was flipped […] Since then, the seat has been held at one time or another by the Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois, Conservatives, New Democrats and Liberals. The NDPâs fundraising has been anemic and its support in the polls has slipped. But the riding is ground zero for Ford Nation. The riding was a three-way race in 2011. Had it gone ahead, the Energy East pipeline would have supplied the Irving refineries in Saint John and the federal government has been blamed in part for the cancellation of this project. The party lost in its bid for power under Tom Mulcair in 2015 and now â under leader Jagmeet Singh â the New Democrats are struggling. Interior and the Lower Mainland. The CBC poll tracker now has the Liberals on 0 seats in Toronto since the NDP have taken first in the polls. If the Liberals are banking on holding any seats in Alberta, Edmonton Centre should be right at the top of the list. With the 2019 federal election fast approaching, there are still multiple ridings in the GTA where polls from 338Canada show the race is still a toss-up. On that day, every Toronto Centre voter gets to choose who will be their representative. But if the Conservatives are able to break through somewhere in the Greater Montreal area, Mirabel might be where they do it. While polls suggest most British Columbians support the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, opposition is strongest on the B.C. In 1924, the riding was broken into Toronto East Centre, Toronto West Centre and Toronto South.. A riding covering much the same area was created in 1933 named "Rosedale" after the wealthy neighbourhood of Rosedale. Voter turnout was higher than average for byelections: 25.6 per cent in York Centre and 30.9 per cent in Toronto Centre. But Quebec has been the most unpredictable province over the last few elections. But LaverdiÃ¨re is not running again and the Liberals are hoping to install Steven Guilbault, a well-known environmental activist, in her place. A manufacturing centre won by the Ontario Tories in six of the last seven provincial elections, Cambridge is the sort of riding the Conservatives need to win back if theyâre going to form government. It was a big breakthrough for the Liberals when they won Lac-Saint-Jean from the Conservatives in a 2017 byelection, as this was the riding where the party put up its worst result in the country east of Saskatchewan in the 2015 federal election. The Liberals also will be looking to pick up a seat the Bloc managed to win with less than one-in-three votes in 2015. But in the absence of an NDP star candidate, I expect Liberals (running a good ground game) to still win by 5-12%. Just over four-fifths of people in ScarboroughâAgincourt are visible minorities and nearly half are of Chinese descent, according to the 2016 census. Brison made this a safe Liberal seat, one of the few that survived the cull of the 2011 federal election. That helped the NDP win in a close three-way race in ReginaâLewvan, but the seat could be up for grabs now after the party booted Erin Weir from caucus for allegedly inappropriate behaviour. In 2015, the Liberals nearly took this riding away from two-time NDP leadership candidate Niki Ashton by making significant inroads among Indigenous voters. The Conservatives will be hard-pressed to win most of the seats FranÃ§ois Legaultâs party captured a year ago, but they could paint some parts of the province Tory blue for the first time since the 1980s. It was a close race in 2015, when the Liberalsâ Nick Whalen beat Harris by just 1.4 percentage points â a rare win for the Liberals in a riding that mostly has voted Conservative in the past. After Erin Mills, MississaugaâLakeshore has been the next most favourable riding for the Conservatives in Mississauga â which makes it a must-win for Andrew Scheer. Voter turnout was higher than average for byelections: 25.6 per cent in York Centre and 30.9 per cent in Toronto Centre. A fast-growing riding full of young families, Milton is one Conservative riding where the Liberals might be playing offense. If the Conservatives canât take this seat back, even a minority government might be out of the picture for Scheer. The Conservatives are angling for a comeback here, which should offer a real test of the partyâs overtures to the Quebec nationalist vote. Whether they win a lot of seats or not, the Greens can be expected to have a significant impact on the outcome of the vote. But the candidacy of Jane Philpott as an Independent makes this riding a wild card. The NDP brand has some staying power in this part of the province, however â the provincial B.C. New Democrats win the areaâs two Burnaby seats in 2017 and could give the federal New Democrats an issue to rally around. But the seat was captured provincially by the Ford PCs in 2018 by a narrow margin and the ridingâs profile makes it one that likely would end up in the Conservative camp if they win a majority government â as was the case in 2011. Photo by Chris Young/The Canadian Press … The profile of local mayor Richard HÃ©bert helped the Liberals win the seat â which had voted Conservative or Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois in every election since 1984 â but the party will face a challenge in holding it. Richmond Hill has the second-most Farsi-speakers of any riding in the country; it elected Iranian-born Majid Jowhari of the Liberals in 2015. Greens made history in April when they formed the partyâs first Official Opposition anywhere in Canada. The riding has been held by the Liberals without interruption since 1988. Without an incumbent, and with a portion of the local party apparatus having backed Weir throughout the dispute, the New Democrats look hobbled â which presents an opportunity to the Conservatives. Interior and the Fraser Valley, The 60 ridings that tell the story of where the election will be won and lost, CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices. 23/05/2018: Joe 18.104.22.168: Smallest urban riding with so many condo-dwellers, polling shows NDP flying in the old city and Toronto Centre should soon go orange too. Before that victory by former mayor and 20-year B.C. The Liberals took most of them back in 2015, but if Andrew Scheer is to replicate Harperâs success he needs to win seats like Kitchener SouthâHespeler. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. The New Democrats gutted the Blocâs support in the last two elections, but with the NDPâs support down steeply the Bloc could make a comeback in many of the seats it lost in the suburbs around the island of Montreal. Instead, it has opted for nationalist candidates in nine of the last 10 elections â Brian Mulroneyâs PCs in the 1980s and the Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois in every election since 1993, with the single exception of 2011, when the riding was swept up in the NDPâs orange wave. Voting in two federal byelections is underway in Toronto Centre and York Centre. Voters in two Toronto ridings head to the polls today in the first electoral test of the federal Liberal government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. A I mentioned in my earlier prediction, the Toronto Centre Liberal riding association is an exceptionally organized, well-funded behemoth with strong ties to Toronto's business and social elite. Davenport, a densely-populated riding where nearly half of commuters take public transit to work, is a key target for the NDP in downtown Toronto, where the party was shut out in 2015. One of the two ridings the Liberals won in Quebec City in 2015, Louis-HÃ©bert has been a tough seat for incumbents to hold. Opposition to the pipeline helped the B.C. Drummond was nearly a four-way race in 2015, with the fourth-place Conservatives finishing 12.8 points behind the first-place New Democrats. The Liberals won in 2015 thanks to their support in the Lower Mainland portion of the riding, but they took few polls in the Interior portion. Voters in ElmwoodâTranscona like to keep things close. The Liberals pulled off a big win in KanataâCarleton to the west of the capital when Karen McCrimmon nearly doubled her partyâs share of the vote between 2011 and 2015, capturing 51 per cent. Located in a traditional swing region of the country, AuroraâOak RidgesâRichmond Hill was won by the Liberals by just 2.1 percentage points in 2015 after the three ridings that existed before were swept by the Conservatives in 2011. Green Leader Andrew Weaverâs seat is within the federal boundaries of Victoria, and with the NDPâs Murray Rankin not running again, the seat is ripe for the picking for the Greens â if they can make good on their uptick in the polls. Smallest urban riding with so many condo-dwellers, polling shows NDP flying in the old city and Toronto Centre should soon go orange too. Chang’s meet-and-greets have made an impression upon students like Brendan Lim, 24, at the University of Toronto – St. George Campus. In Toronto Centre, a diverse riding in the heart of downtown Toronto, broadcaster Marci Ien is running for the Liberals. This is Annamie Paul’s message to all residents of Toronto Centre, as … The urban areas in southwestern Ontario tend to be closely-fought three-way battles between the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP. Will Philpott retain enough of the support that narrowly won her the seat in 2015 to be re-elected as an Independent? Marci Ien, the Liberal Candidate for the Toronto Centre riding is facing a tough challenge from new Green leader Annamie Paul. The Liberals are vulnerable in Atlantic Canada and dropping SydneyâVictoria, which has voted Liberal in 11 of the last 12 elections, would be a significant loss. In 2015, he beat the Conservatives by 63 points. Spent some time here over the weekend. After being dominated by the Progressive Conservatives for years, the riding was held by New Democrats from 1964 until 1979, when it voted for the PCs for four terms. Voters in Quebec have been fickle in recent years. Rosedale is out of the riding, there is no incumbent and the Liberals are out of the game province-wide. The party hasn’t held Toronto Centre since 1993. Thatâs part of the reason why that controversial Saudi LAV deal is a particularly thorny issue for both parties â those LAVs are built in LondonâFanshawe. The riding is typically Conservative territory and voted for the party and its predecessors in every election since 1972, with three exceptions: in 1993, in 1997 and in 2015, when Joe Peschisolido â a former Canadian Alliance MP â won it for the Liberals. While TC be one of the last Liberal holdouts, it will be interesting to see how the NDP does here. Conservatives targeting the nationalist vote, Breaching the Liberalsâ Fortress Toronto, Alberta, the B.C. And even where the NDP does have incumbents, the party canât take anything for granted. The purchase of the pipeline might not have changed the minds of those inclined to distrust the Liberalsâ approach to the energy file. Karina Gouldâs victory in Burlington was one of the surprises in 2015. The history of this riding, both at the provincial and federal levels, has been solidly Liberal â the federal party has lost it only once since 1962. The loss of Rosedale does help the NDP, but with Wynne moving the Liberals leftwards and having the type of policies that sell well in downtown Toronto, I suspect they will hold this. It is a priority for CBC to create a website that is accessible to all Canadians including people with visual, hearing, motor and cognitive challenges. If previous provincial and federal elections are any indication, expect a high profile Liberal candidate to run in this riding and win handedly. She is one of the Liberal cabinet ministers who might have the most to worry about â she won her seat by just 3.5 percentage points in 2015. The Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois won a majority of the provinceâs federal seats in 2008; the New Democrats took most of them in 2011 before being pushed to one side by the Liberals in 2015. The Bloc will be trying to hold onto Mirabel, a seat it has won in every election since its founding, with the exception of the NDPâs 2011 breakthrough. This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 26, 2020. Heâll be up against Richmond Hillâs former Conservative MP Costas Menegakis, who was defeated when he opted to run in a neighbouring riding in the last election. Election Prediction Project/Projet D'�lection Pr�vision - www.electionprediction.org
The NDP holds seats in both the northern parts of these two provinces and in the urban centres of Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Regina. Polls suggest that the Ontario premier might be having a negative impact on Scheerâs election chances. One of the ridings where the lack of an incumbent could hurt the NDP is LondonâFanshawe, where four-term NDP MP Irene Mathyssen has opted to take her name off the ballot. This web site is the creation of P.J. In 2015, Bryan May of the Liberals took it back for the party by a margin of less than five percentage points. Can the Liberals hold on in a three-way race? Interior, where the Liberals are playing both offense and defense. Newly minted Green Party Leader Annamie Paul, is also vying for the seat. Liberals also look like their holding out for a star. Morris hasn't proven compelling enough a campaigner to hold out against the NDP wave. (Chris Young / … The Conservatives are banking on the local profile of Richard Lehoux, a former mayor, to bring the seat back into the Conservative fold. David and parts of St. Andrew—St. Davenport, a densely-populated riding where nearly half of commuters take public transit to work, is a key target for the NDP in downtown Toronto, where the party was shut out in 2015. 2019 Federal Campaign Polls Date : Polling firm Method Sample : LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC: Leader 2019-10-20 Nanos TEL 800 32 33 21 6 7 2 Con +1 2019-10-20 Mainstreet IVR 2032 32 32 18 6 8 3 Égalité/Tie 2019-10-19 EKOS IVR 1994 34 30 18 8 5 4 Lib +4 2019-10-19 Research Co. INT 957 32 31 19 8 7 2 Lib +1 2019-10-19 Ipsos Eric Grenier of CBC now shows them really big leads here and in a couple of middle Ottawa seats. The federal party won Hamilton EastâStoney Creek in 2006, 2008 and 2011, before former Hamilton mayor Bob Bratina took it for the Liberals in 2015. The Conservativesâ odds are slim, but the CAQ has its only presence on the island of Montreal here. Morneau has handily won back his seat in Toronto Centre. But a few ridings in Ontario that otherwise would have been high on the Conservativesâ list of soft targets might be harder for them to win than previously thought â thanks to the unpopularity of Doug Fordâs Progressive Conservative government. INCREDIBLY strong showing by Green Party of Canada leader Annamie Paul in what was supposed to be a "safe" Liberal riding that Morneau won with 57.4% via @ElectionsCan_E #cdnpoli #TorontoCentre NDP now has momentum and a great lot of steam. Depending on how the vote divvies up, there is the potential for Vancouver Granville to become a four-cornered contest this time â one that could go in any direction. Winning a majority government means winning most, if not all, of Mississaugaâs six seats. Eyking is not running for re-election this time â heâs one of five Nova Scotia Liberals who have thrown in the towel â and that could open up an opportunity for the Conservatives. Even when the Liberals were at a historic low in 2011, they still won Guelph by a double-digit margin. The Liberals, Bloc and Conservatives are all covetously eyeing those seats â and all three parties have the potential for gains. The Ford family name will be on the ballot, but it will belong to Renata Ford, widow of former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, who is running for the Peopleâs Party. Quebec was key to the NDPâs rise to Official Opposition status in the 2011 election. This time, Mario Beaulieu, the Bloc incumbent and a former leader of the party, is hoping to hold off not only the Liberals but also the Conservatives, who have a local mayor on the ballot. Or will the Conservatives benefit from a split in the vote and win a seat the Ontario PCs secured by a 22-point margin in 2018? But the party also says it believes it could make inroads into new territory, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area. Interior, where the pipeline issue plays differently than it does in the rest of the province. If the Liberals can attract that NDP vote, they could leapfrog the Conservatives into first place. No incumbent and no Rosedale could change the dynamics here. Patrick, Fort York, when ridings were redistributed to match their federal counterparts. And which party is best positioned to take the most advantage of the NDPâs struggles? MarkhamâStouffville was already setting up to be a competitive race between the Liberals and Conservatives. The future of the Peopleâs Party of Canada likely depends on Maxime Bernierâs ability to win re-election in the riding heâs made into one of the safest Conservative seats in the country since his first win in 2006. There arenât many Liberal seats for the Conservatives to target in Western Canada, but their seats in suburban Winnipeg and the Greater Vancouver Region should be low-hanging fruit. The NDPâs Daniel Blaikie beat Conservative incumbent Lawrence Toet by a margin of just 61 votes in 2015. At the provincial level, Quebecâs last three governments have been run by three different parties. One of the two was Calgary Centre, where former Alberta Liberal MLA Kent Hehr prevailed by a margin of just 1.2 percentage points over the Conservativesâ Joan Crockatt. Marco Mendocino won a closely-fought race against former finance minister Joe Oliver in 2015, returning EglintonâLawrence to its Liberal roots. Itâs where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was twice elected to the Ontario legislature, and where his brother Gurratan won for the NDP in the 2018 provincial election. He polled 21,522 votes in the 2007 provincial election. One of the ridings with the youngest voters in the country, ChurchillâKeewatinook Aski has the most residents who claim First Nations identity (70.3 per cent) of any riding in Canada. Neither the New Democrats nor the Greens have a strong base of support upon which to build in the riding, but if the Liberals lose enough votes to them it could give Saxton his comeback chance. After scoring provincial breakthroughs in Atlantic Canada and a federal byelection win on Vancouver Island, the Greens are poised for what could be their best election ever. Thatâs one reason why Saint JohnâRothesay could flip to the Conservatives â along with the ridingâs generally blue history and the fact that the New Brunswick PCs won all but one of the Saint John regionâs seats in the 2018 provincial election. Speaking to iPolitics on Tuesday, Bernier wasn’t sure if he would run in Toronto Centre or York Centre, both ridings left empty by the resignations of two Liberal MPs. Or if the NDP shows signs of coming even close, the Grits will retaliate with full 'a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Tories' rhetoric to draw the wayward home... Its surprising no major candidates have been nominated here as Glen Murray announced he was retiring months ago although likely to remain a liberal riding. The Greater Toronto Area is key to the Conservativesâ election hopes. Post-final debate, the Liberals will likely get a smidge of a boost. I think this should be too close to call until the parties have nominated candidates. Voter turnout was higher than average for byelections: 25.6 per cent in York Centre and 30.9 per cent in Toronto Centre. Campaign Research poll of Toronto has Liberals up 11 on the NDP in Toronto Centre ... the only other seat after St. Paul's where they can be considered a favourite. So it was always going to be close â but the Liberals will be particularly focused on winning this seat again to keep it out of the hands of Leona Alleslev, who crossed the floor from their party to the Conservatives in 2018. That might give the federal Greens the base they need to win Fredericton. Toss up at this point. And can Elizabeth Mayâs Greens, Maxime Bernierâs new Peopleâs Party or Independents like Jody Wilson-Raybould change the electoral map? The NDP dropped four points in York Centre to less than six per cent of the vote, while the Greens dropped almost one point to 2.6 per cent. The Liberals havenât won in KamloopsâThompsonâCariboo since 1974, but they believe they can win in 2019 thanks to Terry Lake, a former provincial cabinet minister and MLA for the riding from 2009 to 2017. If they pull off a win here, the Liberals are probably on course to stay in power â and the Conservatives are likely heading back to the opposition benches. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal. The NDP has fewer incumbents running for re-election than other parties, putting those seats at risk. But that means itâs normally a reliably Conservative seat and Fuhr could face a challenge in preventing the riding from returning to the norm. But it has been a bellwether since 1993, voting with the party that has formed government ever since. Morneau won the riding handily in 2015 and again in 2019. Mark Eyking nearly lost SydneyâVictoria to the Conservatives in 2011, holding on by just 2.1 percentage points. Will it be the decisive issue when they cast their ballots? That didnât prevent Iqra Khalid of the Liberals winning it by a margin of just over 10 points in 2015, but if the Conservatives are going to win the election theyâll have to win seats like MississaugaâErin Mills. Liberal MP Wayne Long has not always followed the party line: he voted for an inquiry into the SNC-Lavalin affair and against the partyâs small-business tax measures â something that could help him in a province where the Liberal brand has taken a beating. Balancing the environment and the economy has always been complicated for the Liberals â and never more so than when Justin Trudeauâs government bought the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project. I have been a generally liberal voter for the last 20 years, but this time around, they are imploding and those of us who lived through the Toronto Ford mayoral years will do anything to prevent a Ford at the provincial level. Will Beauce go back to its roots or continue to be an exception? Will strategic progressive voters back the Liberals or the Greens, or could the two parties split the vote to the benefit of the Conservatives? The Liberalsâ David Merner finished second with 27.4 per cent, but he will be carrying the Green Party banner this time and has an opportunity to build on his new partyâs score of 19.9 per cent from 2015. At the other end of the country, some coastal residents are lamenting the pipeline that wonât be built: Energy East. But that Toet win was the exception â the only time since 1979 that the riding or its predecessors hadnât picked a New Democrat. It was created in 1999 as Toronto Centre—Rosedale from most of St. George—St. BerthierâMaskinongÃ© was one of the rare ridings in Quebec where the NDPâs share of the vote actually increased between 2011 and 2015 â largely thanks to Ruth Ellen Brosseau, the parachute candidate from Ottawa who made her home in the riding after unexpectedly winning it in the NDPâs orange wave. One factor that could complicate the Conservativesâ chances of winning the seat again is Maxime Bernierâs Peopleâs Party â every vote his candidate captures improves the odds that the Liberalsâ JoÃ«l Lightbound will break the anti-incumbent trend in Louis-HÃ©bert. The Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc are all hoping to benefit from the collapse of the NDP in Quebec â and those hopes intersect in Saint-HyacintheâBagot. Outside the GTA, there are some key ridings the Conservatives won in 2011 that theyâd probably need to win again in 2019 in order to form a majority government. Wilson-Raybould won comfortably in 2015, but the NDP and Conservative candidates still managed a quarter of the vote each. July 15, 2019 Ontario Predictions Update ON predicted seat totals: Lib 70, CPC 41, NDP 9, Ind 1. Particularly where some high-profile Liberal incumbents have a near-term future in Quebec reliably Conservative seat and Fuhr face! 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